Oil Prices Set for Another Weekly Loss on Soft Demand

Crude oil prices looked set for yet another weekly loss, pressured by the perception of softer-than-expected demand in China.

The decline comes in spite of the International Energy Agency’s recent upward revision of oil demand growth for this year. That could be because the agency also revised its 2025 demand growth projection, but downwards.

For this year, the IEA sees demand growth at 920,000 bpd, while for 2025, it forecast growth of 990,000 bpd. Neither figure is impressive for oil traders, and the prediction of a supply surplus for 2025 did nothing to inspire bullishness in market players, especially after OPEC, too, revised its 

demand projections lower. Even so, however, PEC’s demand projection remains substantially higher than the IEA’s, at 1.82 million bpd for 2024.

Brent crude

Brent crude was trading at $71.63 per barrel at the time of writing, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $67.82 per barrel, both down from the opening in Asia.

The latest pressure on prices came from the Chinese refining sector: processing rates in October fell by 4.6%, state statistical data showed, as quoted by Reuters. October marked the seventh month of demand declines in a row. The latest decline was the result of temporary shutdowns and lower rates at some independent refiners.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly inventory report did not help oil prices, either, even though it featured a sizable decline in gasoline and middle distillate stocks. Crude oil, however, added an estimated 2.1 million barrels in the week to November. Gasoline stocks shed 4.4 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels but traders ignored that data.

Separately, the surge of the U.S. dollar following Trump’s victory in last week’s elections also served to dampen demand for crude oil on international markets as it made all dollar-traded commodities more expensive.