Manufacturing growth in the United States slowed in September to its lowest rate since the pandemic recovery started
Global maritime trade growth is slowing in a sign that the global economic slowdown is underway.
Major trading houses are not concerned about a serious pullback in crude demand.

BP restarted production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms on Thursday.
BP halted production on the two platforms on Monday ahead of Hurricane Ian.
Hurricane Ian has since weakened to a Category 1 storm, although some parts of Florida are still being hit.

The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday.
The rate hike is the third straight hike for the Fed, and rates are now the highest they’ve been since 2008.
Crude prices reacted negatively to the news with Brent crude falling back toward $90 per barrel.

Oil prices dropped on Thursday morning.
The United States has avoided a potentially disastrous rail strike.
The Department of Energy is denying plans to refill the strategic petroleum reserve with sub-$80 oil.

OPEC is meeting on September 5 to discuss the state of the oil market.
The cartel is considering slashing oil production.
Reports of where oil demand is heading remain mixed.

G7 finance ministers are set to finalize a plan on a potential price cap on Russian oil.
Despite Russia’s falling oil export volumes, revenues in June increased by $700m from May due to prices pushed higher by its war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin has since warned it will not tolerate any restrictions to prices, and Gazprom would instead only ship oil to states not obeying the price ceiling.

Oil prices have traded below $100 per barrel since the beginning of August.
A recession could weigh further on global oil demand, though many analysts are bullish on oil in 2023.
The looming EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil imports at the end of this year is also expected to push prices higher.

JODI: global crude inventories fell by 21.8 million barrels to 915.8 million barrels in June.
The low level of crude inventories coincided with record-high gasoline prices in the U.S. in June.
Product inventories, on the other hand, rose by 34.1 million barrels to 650.5 million barrels.

The war in Ukraine has forced the West to target Russian energy exports.
Russia has instead offered its crude oil at massive discounts to India and China.
Russia became China’s largest oil supplier earlier this year, according to Chinese customs data for May, overtaking its OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia.

U.S. shale producers have resisted calls from the government to substantially raise production, preferring to return cash to shareholders and repair their balance sheets.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia-KSA has also received calls from the U.S. government to increase its output. KSA has notionally agreed, but with relatively token amounts that do not address the U.S. government’s goal of reducing oil prices.
A closer look at their recent report to shareholders, along with other investing actions they have taken, seems to draw similarities in mindset with U.S. shale producers, in terms of holding to previously announced capital restraint.

Energy traders saw their profits spike during the pandemic, and continue to perform well in 2022.
BP has managed to build one of the most successful energy trading ventures.
Massive trading floors that sometimes rival Wall Street’s biggest banks are becoming increasingly important to oil companies.

Money managers have started to close out short positions on oil.
The oil price slump that started mid-June could be about to reverse.
The disconnect between the physical crude market and paper crude market remains large.