Russian crude exports hit record high in Oct, product shipments lowest in years

Russia's seaborne crude exports reached a record high in October, according to cargo-tracking data, while its exports of petroleum products remained close to their lowest in recent years.

The development came as Russian oil firms took some refining capacity offline amid persistent Ukrainian drone attacks, freeing up more crude for exports before the grace period for latest US sanctions is over.

Seaborne exports of Russian-origin crude from the country's ports amounted to 4.11 million b/d in October, up from 3.77 million b/d in September and 3.43 million b/d in August, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data shows.

Increased loadings were recorded across the main export hubs like Primorsk, Novorossiysk and Murmansk in western Russia, where energy infrastructure has come under intense attacks by Ukraine amid the two countries' ongoing war.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates Russian refiners had to shutter refining capacity of about 1.5 million b/d, or 20% of the country's total capacity, as of the end of October due to Ukrainian drone attacks since August.

The US last month also sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, which accounted for over half of Russian seaborne crude exports, but Washington's first enforcement order against Russia since Donald Trump's return to the White House in January will allow the existing contracts to be fulfilled by Nov. 21.

"The US sanctions ... could lead to a short-term spike in Russian crude imports as buyers secure discounted barrels before restrictions take hold," Commodity Insights analysts said in a note.

Platts assessed Urals on a DAP West Coast India basis at a $2.50/b discount to Forward Dated Brent Nov. 3, compared with $2.05/b in mid-October before the sanctions were announced.

CAS data shows 1.87 million b/d of Russian crude exports last month were destined for India, the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude, up from 1.7 million b/d in September.

Shipments to China, the No. 2 customer, stayed roughly flat at 1.2 million b/d, while Russian crude exports to Turkey -- the No. 3 -- rose to 392,000 b/d from 350,000 b/d.

However, sanctions have also led to congestion as ports and buyers turn cautious amid tighter scrutiny. CAS data shows 10 ships with Russian crude were waiting to discharge their cargoes at Indian ports and nine at Chinese ports as of Nov. 1, roughly double their early-October averages.

Low fuel exports

CAS data shows Russia exported 1.99 million b/d of petroleum products in October, marginally up from 1.93 million barrels b/d in September, the lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.

Low exports came as Ukrainian drones had struck more than two-thirds of the country's refineries at least once and hit facilities as far as 2,000 km from the front line, and Moscow recently extended its gasoline export ban until the end of the year while introducing a partial diesel export ban for small refineries and traders.

Russian exports of fuel oil and residues fell from 791,000 b/d in September to 738,000 b/d in October, a three-month low. Gasoil/diesel exports amounted to 650,000 b/d in October, up from 587,000 b/d in September, but nearly 20% below the 2025 year-to-date average of 797,000 b/d.

Global average diesel crack spreads increased by approximately 60 cents to $24.1/b in October, and Commodity Insights analysts called ongoing attacks a supportive factor for a market preoccupied with potential distillate shortages after sanctions clampdowns.

Together, Rosneft and Lukoil have exported 300,000 b/d of diesel, 290,000 b/d of residual fuel oil and 80,000 b/d of naphtha so far this year based on CAS estimates.

"We do not expect the sanctions to directly cause a significant decline in Russian refined product exports, although a moderate reshuffling and/or further discounting of these volumes is likely," according to a Commodity Insights research note.