At mid-year 2021 we find that we are in an unsettled state with respect to crude supplies. Of the three largest contributors to global supply, the U.S.A., Russia, and OPEC+ (Russia is the “+” in OPEC+), all capable of producing more than 10 mm BOPD, we find that it is OPEC+ in a bit of disarray. With the world now in deficit status with regard to oil production and demand by 2-3 mm BOEPD, there is little room for error.

Oil prices continued falling early on Wednesday, following the sharp losses incurred the previous day after the market started to assess what the OPEC+ deadlock would mean for immediate oil supply, supply-demand balances, and the future of the alliance.

As oil prices have rallied more than 40 percent this year, analysts and institutional investors have grown increasingly bullish on oil stocks, which, many believe, are still undervalued and primed for further upside.

Saudi Aramco has raised the August official selling prices of crude to Asia, as the oil market tightens, sparking fears of another oil price war and prompting the Biden administration to call on OPEC to settle its internal differences and start bringing more oil to markets, Bloomberg has reported, citing administration insiders.

The U.S. benchmark oil price WTI Crude hit its highest level since November 2014 early on Tuesday, after OPEC+ on Monday called off its third attempt to reach an agreement over oil policy management for the coming months.

Nearly a week of formal and side talks and behind-the-scenes negotiations failed to resolve a dispute over baseline production levels at OPEC+. The discord threw the group in its most serious crisis since March 2020, when the alliance’s leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia disagreed on oil supply management with global demand crumbling in the pandemic.
Now the dispute is between two Arab Gulf allies in OPEC—the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—in what analysts see as the UAE looking to step out of the Saudi shadow in global political affairs.

Argentina is working to boost its oil production as well as investing in shale as the Latin American oil and gas giant continues to focus on traditional energy.

OPEC+ is set to resume talks today following a day of digging in by the UAE, which opposes as “unfair” the latest production control proposal to extend the cuts until the end of 2022 without baseline adjustments, and a Saudi challenge on Monday morning.

Oil prices were little changed and trading only slightly down early on Monday while the market is waiting for the OPEC+ group to begin a third day of meetings to try to reach a consensus about oil production levels in the coming months.

OPEC+ much-awaited resumption of talks today has now been delayed, indicating that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not been able to broker any agreement after the UAE opposed production cut proposals as “unfair” and the Saudis responded with tariff amendments designed to hit out as its political ally and economic rival.

Oil market participants may have focused too much on the surging U.S. fuel demand with states re-opening, possibly ignoring the still lurking COVID threats to demand elsewhere, energy analyst Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights, told CNBC in a recent interview.

The unsuccessful attempts by OPEC+ to reach a deal on output cuts increase the risk of creating a supply squeeze in an already tight market, which could potentially send oil prices sharply higher. Consumers are beginning to keenly feel the effects of higher oil prices, with 4th of July gasoline prices in the U.S. set to be the highest for the holiday weekend in seven years while prices are forecast to rise even higher later in the summer.